بررسی آینده احتمالی خلیج گرگان پس از جدایی از دریای کاسپی از نگاه توالی بوم شناختی

نوع مقاله: مقاله علمی - پژوهشی

نویسنده

هیات علمی گروه تولید و بهره برداری-دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان

چکیده

خلیج گرگان حوضه آبی نیمه بسته‌ای است که در سال‌های اخیر با خطر خشکی‌زدگی ناشی از کاهش سطح آب در دریای کاسپی قرار دارد. در این تحقیق آینده احتمالی خلیج پس از جدایی از دریای کاسپی تحت دو سناریو مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. در سناریو اول خلیج تحت تاثیر اقلیم حاکم بر آن بررسی شد. در سناریو دوم خلیج تحت تاثیر اقلیم و ورودی رودخانه‌ها بررسی شد. از میانگین روزانه داده‌های جهت و سرعت باد، بارش و تبخیر و میانگین ماهانه دبی رودخانه‌های منتهی به خلیج جهت مدل‌سازی با مایک21 استفاده شده است. نتایج مدل‌سازی تحت سناریو اول نشان داد که 551 روز بعد جدایی خلیج از دریای کاسپی، خلیج متاثر از اقلیم حاکم بر آن به خشکی مبدل خواهد شد. نتایج مدل‌سازی تحت سناریو دوم نشان داد که خلیج متاثر از اقلیم حاکم بر آن و ورودی رودخانه‌ها بعد گذشت سه سال به تعادل رسیده و مبدل به یک تالاب درون خشکی می‌گردد. بعد جدایی خلیج از دریای کاسپی مراحل توالی بوم‌شناختی در آن با سرعت انجام خواهد شد. در صورت عدم ارتباط خلیج با دریا و عدم تامین حق‌آبه از رودخانه‌ها، جانشینی بوم‌شناختی در خلیج گرگان از نوع جانشینی مخرب خواهد بود. نتایج تحقیق نشان می‌دهد که علاوه بر کاهش سطح آب و فرآیند رسوب‌گذاری، تغذیه‌گرایی نیز به عنوان سومین عامل تهدید‌کننده حیات در خلیج مورد توجه می‌باشد. ضرورت احداث یک کانال جدید از طریق شبه‌جزیره میانکاله به جهت افزایش خودپالایی در خلیج و خروج آن از شرایط جانشینی مخرب پیشنهاد می‌گردد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the probable future of the Gorgan Bay after separation from the Caspian Sea from the perspective of ecological succession.

نویسنده [English]

  • saeed sharbaty
چکیده [English]

Gorgan Bay is a semi-closed water area that has been exposed to water level decreasing in the Caspian Sea in recent years. In this research, the probable future of the Bay after separation from the Caspian Sea under two scenarios is examined.In the first scenario, the Bay was studied under the influence of the prevailing climate on it. In the second scenario, the Bay was studied under the influence of the climate and river inputs. The daily average of wind speed, wind speed, precipitation and evaporation data and the monthly average of rivers debi loading to the bay were used for modeling by Mike 21.The modeling results under the first scenario showed that, 551 days after the separation of the Bay from the Caspian Sea, the Bay would be dwarfed by the prevailing climate on it. The modeling results under the second scenario showed that the Bay affected by the prevailing climate on it and input rivers then reached the balance of 3 years and turned into an inland wetland. Following the separation of the Bay from the Caspian Sea, the stages of ecological successions will be carried out rapidly. If the Bay does not communicate with the sea and does not provide adequate supplies of rivers, ecological successions in the Gorgan Bay will be Disclimax. The results of the study show that in addition to water level decreasing and sedimentary process, eutrophication is also considered as the life threatening third factor in the Bay. The necessity of constructing a new channel through the Miankaleh Peninsula in order to increasing self-purification in the Bay and its withdrawal from Disclimax is proposed.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Gorgan Bay
  • Ecological Succession
  • simulation
  • Mike21
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