Investigating the future geometry and salinity of Gorgan Bay affected by optimistic, intermediate and pessimistic scenarios of water level reduction in the Caspian Sea.

Document Type : scientific research article

Authors

1 Corresponding Author, Instructor, Dept. of Aquatics Production and Exploitation, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Gorgan, Iran

2 . Bachelor's Degree Student of Fisheries Engineering, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Gorgan, Iran

3 Bachelor's Degree Student of Fisheries Engineering, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Gorgan, Iran

Abstract

In this research, an attempt has been made to estimate the salinity and geometric changes of Gorgan Bay affected by the optimistic, intermediate and pessimistic scenarios of water level reduction in Gorgan Bay using mathematical and geometrical modeling. In the modeling, it is believed that the continuous connection between the bay and the sea is maintained only through the Ashurade channel. The estimated features include area, environment, maximum depth, average depth, amount of drought, salinity, amount of salt received in the coasts and time of complete drying of Gorgan Bay. Farnoud of the research states that the bay is affected by the optimistic scenario with an annual decrease of 6.7 cm in the water level up to the year 1442 with an average salinity of 166.4 grams per liter and in the middle scenario with an annual decrease of 17.5 cm. centimeter of water level up to the year 1416 with an average salinity of 49.3 grams per liter, and in the pessimistic scenario, it will end its life with an annual decrease of 25 centimeters in the water level up to the year 1412 with an average salinity of 28 grams per liter. . The salinity of the Gulf will increase drastically in the optimistic scenario. Although in the pessimistic scenario, the gulf will dry up sooner, nevertheless, the amount of salt received by the beaches (less than 2.6 million tons) in this scenario is less than other scenarios. The maximum amount of salt left on the beaches in the optimistic scenario was estimated to be more than 4 million tons. It is suggested that urgent action should be taken regarding the creation of water exchange channels or pumping methods for the bay with the aim of reducing salinity and research to implement an adaptation program in sync with the rise and fall of the Caspian Sea.

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References

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Journal of Utilization and Cultivation of Aquatics
Volume 14, Issue 2
July 2025
Pages 141-160

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