Assessment of Coastal Vulnerability and Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Shoreline Changes in the Southeastern Caspian Sea: A Case Study of the Gorgan-rud River Estuary

Document Type : scientific research article

Authors

1 Gorgan University of Agricutural Sciences and Natural Resources

2 Dept. of Fisheries, Faculty of Fisheries and Environmental Sciences, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Gorgan, Iran

3 Dept. of Environmental Sciences, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Gorgan, Iran.

4 4. Dept. of Fisheries, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Gonbad Kavoos University, Gonbad Kavoos, Iran.

5 5. Inland Waters Aquatics Resources Research Center of .Gorgan, Gorgan, Iran

6 Ph. D Graduate, Production and Exploitation of Aquatic Animals, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Gorgan, Iran.

7 Deputy of Natural Environment and Biodiversity, Department of Environment Protection, Golestan Province, Gorgan, Iran.

Abstract

Background and Objectives: Assessing shoreline vulnerability and temporal variations is a key issue in the sustainable management of coastal areas. The aim of this study is to evaluate the vulnerability and analyze the spatiotemporal changes of the Gorganrud Delta shoreline in Golestan Province.
Materials and Methods: In this study, the Gorganrud Delta region was divided into three zones: northern, central, and southern. Using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) and analyzing multi-temporal Landsat satellite images from 2013 to 2023 within the Google Earth Engine platform, shoreline fluctuations were calculated and measured.
Results:The findings reveal that, based on the End Point Rate (EPR), the central zone of the Gorganrud Delta exhibits the highest rate of shoreline retreat and displacement, with a recorded change of 4.924 meters. This section is therefore categorized as having high to very high vulnerability. Conversely, the southern zone shows greater shoreline stability, characterized by minimal retreat and classified as having very low vulnerability. Such spatial variability is likely driven by differences in coastal hydrodynamic processes and sediment deposition patterns.
According to the Linear Regression Rate (LRR), the magnitude of shoreline displacement was estimated at 81 meters per year in 2013, increasing significantly to 4.924 meters per year in 2023, marking the peak period of shoreline change. Both natural drivers such as declining sea levels and anthropogenic activities appear to substantially influence the spatial dynamics of shoreline shifts in the Gorganrud region. Overall, the identification of high-risk zones and the implementation of targeted management strategies are essential for mitigating coastal vulnerability and promoting the long-term sustainability of these dynamic ecosystems.

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