ضرورت بررسی اثرات کاهش سطح آب دریای کاسپی بر وضعیت خلیج گرگان و ارائه راه‌کار جهت برون رفت از بحران در سال‌های آتی

نوع مقاله : مقاله کامل علمی - پژوهشی

نویسنده

هیات علمی گروه تولید و بهره برداری-دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان

چکیده

حوضه دریایی استان گلستان به‌دلیل قرار گرفتن در منطقه کم‌‌عمق فلات قاره از جمله نواحی در معرض خطر افت و خیز سطح دریای کاسپی می‌باشد. بر اساس مطالعات انجام شده احتمال ادامه کاهش سطح آب به عنوان دور جدیدی از ویژگی‏‌های نوسانی سطح دریای کاسپی دور از انتظار نیست. با عنایت به روند کاهش تراز دریای کاسپی در خلال 20 سال اخیر به میزان 120 سانتیمتر، قطع ارتباط دایمی خلیج گرگان با دریای کاسپی در سال‌های آتی امکان‌پذیر می‌باشد. بر اساس آمایش سرزمینی خلیج گرگان بالقوه استطاعت توسعه بنادر و کشتیرانی، صنعت گردشگری و آبزی‌پروری را دارا می‌باشد. ولیکن در اثر جدایی خلیج گرگان از دریای کاسپی به‌تبع بسیاری از مخاطرات جبران‌ناپذیر زیست‌محیطی و اقتصادی متوجه مدیریت خرد و کلان در ابعاد منطقه‌ایی و فرا منطقه‌ایی خواهد. با دانستن روند رو به کاهش سطح آب و میزان رژیم رسوب‌گذاری می‌توان اثرات رفتار کاهش سطح دریای کاسپی را بر حوضه‌های تحت امر آن شبیه‌سازی نمود. نتایج چنین مدل‌سازی‌هایی می‌تواند به عنوان راه‌کاری مدیران را در اتخاذ تدابیر مناسب و برنامه‌ریزی جهت توسعه پایدار، استفاده بهینه از حوضه دریایی استان گلستان بر اساس آمایش سرزمینی، جانمایی بوم‌سازگان‌های جدید، کاهش بلایای زیست‌محیطی و جلوگیری از زیان‌های اقتصادی وارده به منطقه تحت شرایط بحرانی آینده یاری نماید. در مقاله حاضر ضرورت بررسی موضوع خطرات کاهش سطح دریای کاسپی بر وضعیت آتیه خلیج گرگان مد نظر قرار گرفته است و نسبت به ارائه برخی موضوعات پیشنهای و راه‌کارهای علمی و عملی جهت بیرون رفت از بحران در سال‌های آتی با استفاده از شبیه‌سازی‌های رایانه‌ایی می‌پردازد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Review necessity of the Caspian Sea water level decreasing effects on the Gorgan Bay situation and solutions offer for the crisis overcoming in future years

نویسنده [English]

  • saeed sharbaty
چکیده [English]

Golestan province Sea basin due to locating in the shallow water continental shelf area, including areas at risk of the Caspian Sea water level fluctuations. Based on the studies conducted, probability of decreasing water level not unexpected as a new feature of water level fluctuations in the Caspian Sea water level. According to decreasing trend of the Caspian Sea water level in amount of 120 cm in during 20 years, permanent disconnection of Gorgan Bay with the Caspian Sea is possible in future years. According to land use planning, the Gorgan Bay has potential afford in porting and shipping, torism and aqucultre development. But by separating of the Gorgan Bay from the Caspian Sea a lot of economical and environmental irrecoverable hazards will be realized by small and large management in regional and transregional scales. By knowing water level decreasing trend and sediment transport regime can be simulating behavior of water level reducing of the Caspian Sea on its subdomains. The results of such modelings could be useful for managers as a solution in appropriate practices adopting and planning for sustainable development, optimal use of Golestan provience sea basin based on land using, locating for new ecosestems, environmental disaster reduction and preventing of economic losses under next crisis situations on this area. In this paper, review necessity of the Caspian Sea water level decreasing hazards considered on the future status of the Gorgan Bay and providing some of the proposed topics and scientific and practical strategies by using computer simulations in order to crisis overcoming in future years.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Gorgan Bay
  • Caspian Sea
  • sea level decreasing
  • Computer Simulation
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